PORTAL FOR PUNDITS & POLITICS: Scoops and Insider Insights
Want to be predict who will be next Governor? Beware of misleading early indicators ..and polls: This week’s Siena poll found that Gov. Kathy Hochul has a heavy double-digit lead over her opponents in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. With the largest war chest and thirty-six percent of voters indicating their support for Hochul, things seem up for the Governor to keep her job title.
The runner-up in the polls, NY Attorney General Tish James (also considered a frontrunner) has exactly half the support, with 18% backing her.
What’s surprising, says Siena’s pollster Steven Greenberg, is that “unlike what is often seen in early polls, it is not completely based on name recognition.” Hochul and James have very similar favorability ratings among all voters, but Hochul is miles away in the race… right now.
June is eons away on the political timescale, and if former Governor Andrew Cuomo has taught us anything (besides his book’s “Leadership Lessons”), it’s that the tides can change quickly.
Still more on guberna-tutorial, a gloomy tidbit: According to the poll, for the first time since February 2020, fewer New Yorkers say the state is headed on the right track (41 percent), rather than in the wrong direction (45 percent), down from 44-43 percent last month.
And leaving a vaxxing impression: Mayor de Blasio has only six percent of hypothetical voters backing him for governor (at least he’s doing better than one percent support during his quixotic presidential run). To rub salt in the wound, Siena’s pollster says “de Blasio is the most known – and most disfavored – candidate among all voters.”…Ouch and Oy.
Bill is being coy about officially running, but many suspect his recent antics during his last month in office are an attempt to stay in the spotlight. Take, for instance, a “first-in-the-nation” vaccine mandate for private employers that would take effect just four days before he leaves office. Instead of announcing it via a press conference, he blurted it out during an MSNBC appearance.
Science aside, political experts say it’s a shrewd move to cement his legacy as a vaccination leader, but it has left many business leaders scrambling and perturbed. Randy Peers, CEO of the Brooklyn Chamber of Commerce, said it would be “virtually unenforceable” and “mean more pain for the city’s economy.”
Also, Eric Adams intends to “evaluate this mandate” when he takes office, making Big Bill’s ‘edict-gambit’ gamble even more head-scratching.
Switched at birth? Overheard at a Park Slope bar: “Max Rose’s photo is back in the news bigtime….he looks like the twin of that Brit who ran MTA…” Max is indeed running to reclaim his former congressional seat, getting lots of cable coverage. And, yes, he does bring to mind former MTA head Andy Byford. Having returned to his origins in London, Byford won many fans for his train savvy, but alas, everyone in the MTA was bullied by Cuomo…Maybe Byford should return and campaign for Rose.
If you want to be the next NY City Council Speaker…maybe it’s best to stop talking: Want a recipe for cutthroat political drama? Remove public voters and instead have 51 New York City Councilmembers choose who gets promoted as their next leader.
Voila…you have the City Council Speaker’s race. And the heat is on: some in Eric Adams’ inner circle have been reportedly ‘phone-bombing’ the City Council and kingmakers to push Queens Councilmember Francisco Moya into the top spot.
Although the formal internal vote won’t happen ‘till early next year, insider sources say this week will be a critical decider.
Moya is (or was) largely considered a frontrunner amongst the seven candidates and is close to Adams. But the pro-Moya push has turned into a revolt, with one Council Member dropping an ‘F Bomb’ on the Daily News: “It’s f—-d up and disrespectful.”
A politician telling another elected how to vote for can sour quickly, especially when orders come from an ‘unfriendly’. Others said “they got played,” according to City & State, with Moya bragging that he had the 26 votes to win, but apparently “had zero votes,” according to the C&S source.
There’s no sign Adams was part of his pals’ push. The next Mayor said he wouldn’t get involved, and while he’d be fine with Moya, sources say he’d also be content with Brooklyn’s frontrunner Justin Brannan as Speaker…which now might very well be the case.
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