Report: City’s projections of rezoning outcomes are less reliable predictor than a coin toss
Village Preservation, a nonprofit community organization, released a report on Wednesday, which looks at city-initiated neighborhood rezonings over the last two decades and the actual outcomes as compared to the projections made by the city’s Department of City Planning.
The study found that the city’s predictions were almost always wildly off-base, including on key issues that were often the basis for these neighborhood rezonings, such as the amount of housing that would be produced, the amount of affordable housing that would be created, the ratio of commercial to residential development, the impact on retail uses, and the size and location of new developments.
The study found that the accuracy rate of City’s projections rarely reached 50% — the rate a coin toss or a random guess on average would produce. In rezonings including East Midtown, Jerome Avenue, and East Harlem, the city’s projections actually had a 0% accuracy rate.